Melbourne Cup 101: What goes into picking a winner?

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There's more than meets the eye when it comes to picking a winner on race day, with a plethora of variables from barriers to weather conditions and information surrounding training impacting betting odds with every passing day.

Keeping up to date with your Melbourne Cup tips is truly just the tip of the iceberg for punters who are seeking to win big at Flemington this year. With a prize pool over $8,000,000, it's well worth taking the extra time to do some diligent research before placing your bets this year.

But what variables should be considered when picking your horse? Read on for a little overview on what goes into picking a winner to ensure you'll be betting with confidence this upcoming Melbourne Cup Day.

Bookies create racing odds by taking the results from lead-up races in the Spring Racing Carnival, like the Turnbull Stakes, Caulfield Cup. Even other international races are taken into account when establishing betting odds to ensure accurate stats are collected on overseas horses.

For this reason, it's imperative that you keep tabs on these preliminary races in the lead-up to race day at Flemington. If you follow these lead-up races and stay on top of results from other international events, you'll be able to ensure that all your information is up-to-date and aligns with premium intel provided by form analysts and top Cup Day tipsters.

Form analysts have discovered that it's more likely for horses aged between four and five to win over horses under three. These averages have been calculated over the history of the Melbourne Cup, which spans around 170 years, so whilst they are worth keeping in mind, they must also be taken with a grain of salt.

Alongside the age of the racing thoroughbreds, of course, one of the other most important stats to consider when selecting your winning horse is the weight of its jockey.

Generally speaking, the lighter the rider, the more likely that horse will be to win, which will, in turn, impact the betting odds assigned to that horse.

Even so, it's not unheard of for older horses carrying more weight to be amongst the first ten to cross the line. Never rule out the chances of a long shot!

For horses carrying weights over the recommended weight for their age bracket, handicapping will ensure their chances of crossing the post come race day are still fairly equal against those of their competitors.

It's safe to say that if a jockey has managed to make their way to the Melbourne Cup, it's likely they've had a career that's been second-to-none.

Despite being around the same builds and having more or less similar training backgrounds, not all jockeys are the same, and their racing history can reveal a fair bit about their odds of winning 'The Race That Stops The Nation'.

More often than not, many of the jockeys that go on to win the Melbourne Cup had experienced some personal winning streaks in the lead-up to the big race, or at the very least, have had plenty of time training and becoming familiar with their intended mount for the day.

Be sure to look at jockeys who've experienced some great personal wins prior to Cup Day, and for riders that seem quite confident and comfortable with their horses.

One of the most notable stats when looking at past winners of the Cup has to be the trainers behind the racers. Trainers can naturally have an immense influence over ensuring that a horse and rider are both performing at their best.

With Australia being home to some of the world's best trainers, local punters may have a huge home-field advantage so long as they prioritise engaging with the comings and goings of big-name trainers like Danny O'Brien, Gai Waterhouse, and Rob Hickmott.

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Although there's a lot that must be considered when picking your winner on any Cup Day, 2021's Spring Carnival is looking to be quite an exciting event that will no doubt pave the way for an awe-inspiring race number 7.

Be sure to book your tickets for Flemington and for other Cup Day events or preceding races nice and early this year to get ahead of the anticipated crowds.