General News
26 April, 2026
Rental squeeze could stifle Stawell’s future
STAWELL’S rental crisis may be deeper than it appears online — and that matters for far more than people already looking for a place to live. It matters for whether workers apply for jobs, whether young families consider moving to town, and whether Stawell can compete for the people it needs at a time when its long-term population outlook is already under pressure.
A state government study — Victoria in Future — estimates Northern Grampians’ total population will slip only modestly by 2036, but the age profile will shift far more dramatically, with sharp declines in children and young adults and a steep rise in older residents.
That makes housing availability — particularly for younger households — a critical piece of the puzzle.
Laura Pavey, property manager at Elders Real Estate Stawell, said the rental market remained tight, but noted not every tenancy appears on public websites.
Some prospective tenants register directly with agencies and can be matched with properties before they are widely advertised, with waiting times ranging from about one month to as long as five months, depending on the type of home sought.
That system works for people already in the market.
But for someone considering a move to Stawell, the online listings are still the shop window — and right now, that window looks almost empty.
On realestate.com.au this week, there were just three rental listings in Stawell: a $200-a-week room in a shared house, a furnished two-bedroom home at $390 a week, and a three-bedroom unit at 2/4 Sutherland Street for $460 a week.
The platform’s rental figures are based on listings rather than every tenancy in town, meaning off-market rentals are not fully captured in median pricing data — potentially masking how tight and competitive the market has become.
Even so, what is visible raises another issue: value.
The $460-a-week Stawell unit is technically a three-bedroom property, but not the kind of “young family” home the town most needs.
Ms Pavey said the strongest demand from investors was for family-style housing — typically three-bedroom homes with yards suited to young couples and families starting out.
Yet at the same time, comparable or better housing in nearby Ararat is available at lower prices — including a four-bedroom house listed for $470 a week and a three-bedroom home for $395 a week.
That comparison is difficult to ignore for anyone weighing up where to live.
It also feeds directly into a broader demographic challenge.
Victoria in Future projections show the shire’s 15–29 population is expected to fall by almost 30 per cent by 2036, while the number of residents aged 65 and over rises by almost 34 per cent. By that point, Northern Grampians is projected to have nearly three residents aged over 65 for every child aged under 15.
Those are the cohorts that underpin workforce depth, school enrolments, local spending and long-term community sustainability — and they are also the cohorts most likely to rely on the rental market when arriving in a town.
Ms Pavey said demand in Stawell continues to outstrip supply, with around five to seven applications typically received for a single property, and only one approved.
She also acknowledged it can be difficult for applicants without a strong rental history, although each case depends on individual circumstances and landlord preferences.
At the same time, the number of households in Northern Grampians is projected to rise despite the overall population slipping, reflecting smaller household sizes over time. That means more dwellings are needed simply to keep pace — adding further pressure to an already constrained market.
None of this is to suggest local agents are doing anything improper. From an agency or investor perspective, strong demand and quick leasing are positive conditions. Ms Pavey said Elders had brought 11 new properties onto the rental market in the last quarter, helping to house more residents.
But what works for the market does not necessarily work for the town.
For the broader community, a rental landscape with almost no visible supply, rising barriers to entry, and prices that compare poorly with nearby centres is more than an inconvenience.
It is a constraint on growth.
And in a town already facing a shrinking pool of young people and families, it is a problem that risks reinforcing itself — quietly, but decisively — over time.
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