Rural & Agriculture
8 August, 2026
Perfect mix: stage set for 'maximum' bird flu damage
THE concentration of a bird flu outbreak near the mouth of the Murray River is creating a perfect storm for the spread of the deadly virus, experts have warned. An escalating bird flu outbreak is poised to cause "maximum damage" following confirmation of Australia's first mass mortality event.
The mass mortality event was confirmed on Monday after a large group of dead and sick greater crested terns at Baudin Rocks, in South Australia, tested positive for the virus.
Six new cases were also confirmed in Victoria while a cluster of sick and dead crested terns found in the state's southwest underwent further testing.
It bumped the national tally up to 78 - including 58 in SA alone - with a further 49 suspected cases.
An expert said the concentration of sick and dying birds close to the Murray River's mouth in SA, along with the beginning of the migration season and an encroaching El Nino, looked set to trigger a major outbreak.
"It's the perfect mix for the virus to spread and do maximum damage," BirdLife Australia's Sean Dooley told AAP.
Silver gulls, which readily feed on carrion and are abundant in urban areas, posed the greatest threat, he said.
He said waterbirds, which tended to congregate and breed in large flocks, were at most immediate risk.
The threat is expected to increase as a predicted super El Niño year tightens its grip on the landscape, bringing hot and dry conditions.
"Even though there's been lots of floods in the outback, once everything starts to dry out you'll get concentrations of waterbirds in dwindling numbers of viable wetlands," Mr Dooley said.
"They become potential super-spreader events."
Environment Minister Murray Watt warned of a "long, difficult journey" ahead, saying the virus's spread would be confronting and cause significant damage to Australian wildlife.
"The reality is you can't stop native and wild birds flying around, you can't stop wild animals moving around, and that will mean more mass mortality events like the one we have now seen," he said in Canberra.
The poultry industry is also at significant risk, with Federal Agriculture Minister Julie Collins not ruling out an outbreak.
The World Organisation of Animal Health estimates bird flu has resulted in 140 million dead or culled poultry worldwide.
Ms Collins said Australia had learned from its experience eradicating H7 bird flu after outbreaks in 2024 and 2025 as it prepared for the latest spread.
The Commonwealth has invested more than $113 million in preparedness and responses.
However, Ms Collins could not put a dollar figure on the likely total cost to the economy.
She said the cost of eradicating H7 was about $110 million.
Authorities said there was minimal risk to human health from bird flu.