It’s Ararat’s annual rainfall totals from 1905 to 2014 with a polynomial average trend line extended to 2050. 

While not an accurate prediction of future rainfall and it’s unlikely to be as bad as the graph suggests, it does indicate the average annual rainfall for Ararat is declining at an increasing rate. 

If current trends continue our annual rainfall could be around 300mm by 2050; similar to that currently received at Ouyen. 

The message from the graph is simple; climate change is real and it’s already affecting us. 

We need to start preparing for a hotter, drier future. 

Councils and water authorities need to future proof our water supplies by develop storm water capture and reuse schemes and by linking existing water schemes to form a water grid. 

This would allow water to be sourced from areas with higher rainfall, even interstate. 

Power and gas lines connect Victoria and Tasmania, so why not water pipes. 

Unfortunately our local native vegetation will be devastated by the declining rainfall. 

Unless it also grows around Ouyen it won’t continue to grow around Ararat. 

Anyone undertaking tree planting should use species from low rainfall areas rather than local species. 

It would give our wildlife some hope of survival. 

Government agencies responsible for our native plants and animals need to begin active management of critical habitats, possibly including artificial irrigation, to maintain viable native flora and fauna populations. 

At present they appear to be either in denial of climate change or are content to count our native species into extinction. 

Fire agencies need to adapt to a greater bushfire threat with fewer personnel and less funding. 

They need to adopt more cost effective method of hazard reduction and fire suppression rather than trying to follow the high cost, high tech, high risk approach of the US. 

Strategic fuel management around population centres including harvesting the fire hazards as heating fuel could provide better protection for communities, reduce management costs and create employment. 

More effective methods of detection and initial attack would keep fires small reducing the risk and cost. 

Using ground applied retardant with tracked carriers is one option that has the potential to reduce the average size of bushfires by up to 98% and suppression costs by up to 80%. 

Climate change is going to create challenges and perhaps some opportunities. 

We need to think outside the square to find solutions. 

Denial is no longer an option.

Ararat